Since
the end of World War II, the US has gone from being a nation of canned
beans and thousands of creamed vegetable recipes to being a country of
fresh fruits and vegetables all year long.
These are nice things, and because of President Donald Trump, we may very well be about to have them taken away.
According
to Dolia Estevez, a journalist based in Washington, DC, Trump was
incredibly nasty to Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto on a recent
phone call.
"I don't need the Mexicans. I don't need Mexico," Trump reportedly told the Mexican president. "We are going to build the wall and you all are going to pay for it, like it or not."
That's really, really not true. It's also all very, very bad.
On
the call, Trump reportedly threatened Peña Nieto with a 10% tax on
Mexican exports and a 35% tax on exports that hurt Mexico the most.
Problem is, that would just really hurt us.
The Wilson Center, a nonpartisan think tank, estimates that 4.9 million American jobs depend on our trade with Mexico, and if people don't have jobs, they can't have any
nice things, American or Mexican. The Peterson Institute — another
think tank — says a trade war with Mexico and China would push us into
recession.
So that's one thing.
Another
thing is that Mexico is the US's third-largest trading partner. In
2015, the US imported $295 billion worth of goods from the country.
Here's how that breaks down, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative (emphasis added):
- "The top import categories (2-digit HS) in 2015 were: vehicles ($74 billion), electrical machinery ($63 billion), machinery ($49 billion), mineral fuels ($14 billion), and optical and medical instruments ($12 billion)."
- "US imports of agricultural products from Mexico totaled $21 billion in 2015, our 2nd-largest supplier of agricultural imports. Leading categories include: fresh vegetables ($4.8 billion), other fresh fruit ($4.3 billion), wine and beer ($2.7 billion), snack foods ($1.7 billion), and processed fruit & vegetables ($1.4 billion)."
- "US imports of services from Mexico were an estimated $21.6 billion in 2015, 11.0% ($2.1 billion) more than 2014, and 50.0% greater than 2005 levels. It was up roughly 191% from 1993 (pre-NAFTA). Based on 2014, leading services imports from Mexico to the U.S. were in the travel, transportation, and technical and other services sectors."
Fresh fruits and vegetables are nice things. Guac on your $10 Chipotle is a nice thing. Both are now at risk.
Cheap cars are nice things.
Much of the US auto industry's supply chain runs through Mexico, where
labor is cheaper. The country shipped $50.5 billion in finished cars and
$51 billion in car parts to the US in 2015, according to government data. Over the past six years, US car manufacturers have announced investments in Mexico's auto industry totaling $24 billion.
What
Trump doesn't understand is that countries like Mexico can always
retaliate against us if their pride is hurt. And they can do it with the
support of their people — it would be a political win.
Last
week, the president of Mexico's national conference of governors, Gov.
Graco Ramirez of Morelos, told a Mexican newspaper that Trump had
declared "war" on Mexico.
"With
Trump, dialogue is exhausted," Ramirez told El Universal. "It doesn't
make sense to sit down with him. He doesn't change his attitude or his
position."
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